{"id":10496,"date":"2020-03-26T12:51:39","date_gmt":"2020-03-26T12:51:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peacerep.org\/?p=10496"},"modified":"2022-01-29T19:19:51","modified_gmt":"2022-01-29T19:19:51","slug":"covid-19-and-violent-conflict-responding-to-predictable-unpredictability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gentest.cahss.ed.ac.uk\/dev-peacerep\/2020\/03\/26\/covid-19-and-violent-conflict-responding-to-predictable-unpredictability\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 and Violent Conflict: Responding to Predictable Unpredictability"},"content":{"rendered":"

PSRP Programme Director Christine Bell<\/a> writes about designing the most effective responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in conflict-affected regions. Originally published in Just Security<\/a>.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

The\u00a0World Health Organization<\/a>\u00a0is working on the basis that\u00a0death rates rise when COVID-19 casualties exceed domestic health service capacity<\/a>. The response is to require \u201csocial isolation\u201d and shutdowns of large swathes of society and the economy. So far, media focus has been on the crisis in China, Europe, and the United States. However, the world\u2019s poorest countries have little public health care capacity, and often also lack effective central governments with any geographic reach or legitimacy to order \u2014 let alone enforce and manage \u2014 shutdowns. Unless there are\u00a0mitigating disease dynamics in other places<\/a>\u00a0that are not yet understood, the\u00a0consequences of the ongoing pandemic on poorer countries will be grim<\/a>.<\/p>\n

At the same time, many of these same impoverished countries are also in the throes of violent conflict. We know from experience that the relationship between armed conflict and crisis is complicated and leads to unpredictable results. If this unpredictability is, however, itself predictable \u2014 a \u201cknown unknown<\/a>\u201d \u2014 can a \u201csmart<\/a>\u201d response be put in place? Our ongoing research at the\u00a0Political Settlements Research Programme<\/a>\u00a0suggests that the following 11 baseline understandings are likely to be key in designing the most effective responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in conflict-affected regions:<\/p>\n

1. Implementing technical solutions is always political, and \u201cconflict lenses\u201d are needed to anticipate the effectiveness of any response<\/strong><\/p>\n

Violent conflict takes place in deeply divided societies, where \u201cthe State\u201d is often seen as owned by and serving \u201cone side\u201d of these division(s). Any disease response needs to factor in that any \u201ctechnical response\u201d will be understood through local conflict sensibilities. Local populations will appraise and measure any response in terms of wider conflict divisions and lack of trust, which will determine how \u201chelp\u201d is received. For example, even in relatively peaceful Northern Ireland,\u00a0disagreement over when the power-sharing government should implement COVID-19 school closures<\/a>, took on a conflict hue, as Irish nationalist parties pushed for similar timing to the Republic of Ireland, while Unionist parties awaited the response of the British government.<\/p>\n

2. Mid-level peacebuilders have unique capacities to bridge and build trust between the state and local communities<\/strong><\/p>\n

Where and whenever possible, combined messaging by local and international \u201cethical brokers\u201d who are trusted in local communities can be important for navigating lack of trust. During and after the Ebola crisis in Sierra Leone,\u00a0networks of local \u201cmid-level\u201d peacebuilders played an important role<\/a>\u00a0in building trust for interventions in borderland communities whose experience of the conflict had left them with no trust in the State or its health interventions.<\/p>\n

3. Flexible aid may be needed that can bypass the State in contentious areas<\/strong><\/p>\n

Donors may need to provide creative \u201cdirect-funding\u201d for local communities, particularly where they are autonomous and oppositional to the state. However, states subject to such bypassing, will likely view this process as a threat to their sovereignty, particularly if the sub-state region has aspirations of becoming an independent state. Hence, aid modalities may themselves need forms of conflict-diplomacy.<\/p>\n

4. Crisis management can have \u201cpeace dividends\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Moments of crisis can also provide turning points in a conflict, depending on how the parties and international actors behave. COVID-19 itself has already contributed to\u00a0renewed calls for a ceasefire, and implementation of prisoner releases<\/a>\u00a0in Afghanistan. Both were provided for in the recent\u00a0U.S.-Taliban Agreement<\/a>, but until COVID-19 evolved into a full blown global pandemic, these provisions were proving difficult to implement. Similarly, President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines recently\u00a0declared a unilateral ceasefire with the National Democratic Front<\/a>\u00a0(NDF) to better fight the spread of the coronavirus, although the NDF greeted the call with some suspicion rather than reciprocity. The\u00a0December 2004 tsunami that devastated Indonesia<\/a>\u00a0reinvigorated a settlement process, which was all but dead between the Free Aceh Movement and Indonesian government, resulting in a peace\u00a0agreement<\/a>.<\/p>\n

5. Conflict parties often seek to make military and political gains, under cover of crisis response<\/strong><\/p>\n

Crises can also be used as cover for military and political gains in a conflict that is continuing. For example, the same 2004 tsunami that arguably helped produce a peach agreement in Indonesia, contributed to dynamics that ultimately saw the peace process in Sri Lanka failing, producing a bloody conflict. In Nepal, the deadly 2015 earthquake pushed the main parties to agree to a permanent constitution<\/a>, but at the price of narrowing the peace process\u2019 wider promise of inclusion to a range of ethnic and socially excluded groups, including women. In Ogaden Ethiopia, famine and delivery of food aid has often been\u00a0charged as being a vehicle<\/a>\u00a0for the Ethiopian military to gain access to opposition-held areas, and pursue destructive policies such as \u201cde-villagization<\/a>.\u201d Local humanitarian agreements in Syria, also\u00a0stand charged with swapping \u201cbread for surrender<\/a>.\u201d Thus, how crisis response is delivered, and how it enables other agendas, can become independent conflict accelerants, as can perceptions of bias in terms of which communities\u2019 needs are viewed as being prioritized.<\/p>\n

6. State and non-State armed actor capacities for mobilization, and their political and military calculations, will be different<\/strong><\/p>\n

During conflict, efforts by international agencies to implement something like a \u201cshut down\u201d will impact very differently on State forces as opposed to non-State forces such as al-Qaeda or the Taliban. In a conflict like Afghanistan, where policing\u00a0border crossings are key<\/a>\u00a0to inserting break points in disease spread, if these are also conflict or rebel-held hotspots, then this will pose added challenges. Local geographies will be affected differently, because crises will affect them differently\u00a0and\u00a0<\/em>because they will have\u00a0different local political settlements<\/a>\u00a0between State, non-State and civic actors, which affect their capacity for coordinated responses.<\/p>\n

7. COVID-19 may pose unique logistical challenges to current peace processes<\/strong><\/p>\n

There are challenges that may be unique to COVID-19 because of its global scale, and the nature of the crisis.<\/p>\n

8. Diplomacy and peacekeeping may become \u201cabsent\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

The pandemic has impacted on all forms of diplomacy, from\u00a0Brexit<\/a>\u00a0to regional peace processes. Peace processes depend on diplomacy and third party guarantees. In peacekeeping forces and donor country missions,\u00a0States are withdrawing personnel<\/a>. The COVID-19 pandemic has already seen\u00a0a travel ban<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0ban on social gathering<\/a>\u00a0implemented in South Sudan, where the\u00a0last transition agreement<\/a>\u00a0is but three weeks old, effectively bringing its process of implementation and diplomacy to a standstill. The COVID-19 pandemic differs from the Ebola crisis in that with Ebola diplomacy and internationalized responses could continue beyond shutdowns and immediately affected zones. Whereas with COVID-19, diplomats falling ill,\u00a0sometimes perhaps as a result of their diplomatic contact<\/a>, has been a feature of transmission this far.\u00a0There are innovative ways to use technologies \u2014 the two week old\u00a0Spanish-Catalan dialogue<\/a>\u00a0is moving online for example. But, face-to-face contact often has a distinctive trust-building role to play in conflict settings (e.g.\u00a0Anwar el-Sadat\u2019s visit to Jerusalem<\/a>, which paved the way to the Camp David Accords).<\/p>\n

9. Emergency legislation is a response with conflict-dangers<\/strong><\/p>\n

Western states such as the United Kingdom and France seem to be moving toward\u00a0forms of emergency law<\/a>\u00a0that have\u00a0little democratic or judicial oversight<\/a>. Where democratic states go, more autocratic, conflicted states will quickly follow. In divided societies, states of emergency have a long history of uneven application to national minorities and political opponents.\u00a0They are often \u201csynonyms of sustained and extensive human rights violations<\/a>.\u201d There are\u00a0reasons to work within the confines of human rights law, especially during health crises where use of law really matters<\/a>. In any country, the risk is that while some urgent powers will be needed for health care provision, the police and executive powers will have wider application. In conflict contexts, crisis often provides a pretext for a long-term\u00a0executive power-grab of dubious constitutionality<\/a>\u00a0or other abuses of exercises of emergency powers. A clear danger is that these emergencies do not end when the health crisis does, but continue indefinitely.<\/p>\n

10. Elections are also peculiarly at threat, with specific conflict consequences<\/strong><\/p>\n

The social isolation element of containment also means that the\u00a0holding of elections is particularly at threat<\/a>\u00a0in a context where\u00a0democratic decay<\/a>\u00a0is already a global phenomenon and poses a particular risk for conflicted states. Post-conflict contexts depend on elections to resolve power tussles peacefully and\u00a0avoid governmental breakdown<\/a>, such is now threatened in Kosovo.<\/p>\n

11. A lack of international legal confidence<\/strong><\/p>\n

Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic provides wider challenges because of the moment in which it arises. We are living in a period during which the currency of international norms, international organizations, and\u00a0globalized responses, are less popular than even a decade ago<\/a>. For a crisis that is inherently, cross-border \u2014 indeed global \u2014 in nature, such increased skepticism of multilateralism render necessary cross border global responses harder to put in place.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n

In conclusion, the COVID-19 threat is unusual in that it is imminent, and globally existential. Countries in conflict have populations who have been facing existential threat for a long time. At time of writing, the\u00a0U.N. Secretary General has called for a world-wide ceasefire<\/a>. If illness takes hold in conflicted states, it is possible that this call will be heeded. But even ceasefires require agreements and diplomacy. Creative thinking on how to address coronavirus and conflict together could play a game-changing role in ending unnecessary deaths by disease and warfare in of some of the world\u2019s most troubled places.<\/p>\n

To read more about the response to Covid-19 in conflict-affected states, see our page on Conflict, Development, and Covid-19 Resources<\/a>.
\n<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Image: Pixabay<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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