{"id":18067,"date":"2018-06-28T13:21:43","date_gmt":"2018-06-28T13:21:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peacerep.org\/?p=18067"},"modified":"2022-12-19T10:58:13","modified_gmt":"2022-12-19T10:58:13","slug":"the-ceasefire-is-essential-but-what-should-happen-next-for-peace-in-afghanistan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gentest.cahss.ed.ac.uk\/dev-peacerep\/2018\/06\/28\/the-ceasefire-is-essential-but-what-should-happen-next-for-peace-in-afghanistan\/","title":{"rendered":"The ceasefire is essential \u2013 but what should happen next for peace in Afghanistan?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Why is a ceasefire important?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Accord\u2019s<\/em>\u00a0latest publication on peace in Afghanistan<\/a>, produced by Conciliation Resources,\u00a0highlights the need for a radical new approach to peace in the country \u2013 one that builds progressive steps towards de-escalation and reconciliation and includes Afghan society as a whole.<\/p>\n

Uniquely, the publication brings together in one place perspectives on peace from both the Government of Afghanistan and the Taliban \u2013 with contributions from the Chair of the High Peace Council, HE Mohammed Kareem Khalili, the Taliban Political Office in Qatar and senior representatives of five Taliban factions. Across the 25 chapters, contributors also span a range of outlooks and insights of Afghan and international men and women from academia, the military, politics and civil society.<\/p>\n

Accord\u2019s<\/em>\u00a0editors argue that the process towards peace must begin with measures to reduce violence as a basis to build confidence in more fundamental change over time.\u00a0Lack of confidence among the warring parties is the primary blockage to progress towards agreement on even the most basic issues.<\/p>\n

It is driven in the first instance by the pervasive violence affecting many parts of the country. Confidence is further compromised by widespread mistrust of formal negotiation processes and agreements, and perceptions that national institutions are corrupt and partisan, as well as by the dual system of governance in Afghanistan \u2013\u00a0with the government running the main population centres and the Taliban much of the countryside.<\/p>\n

Only after the establishment of a credible ceasefire can the root causes of the conflict be dealt with.<\/p>\n

What needs to happen now?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Concrete progress towards violence reduction could provide the necessary momentum to move beyond the peace rhetoric in the country \u2013 so far a persistent theme of the Afghan conflict is the glaring gap between words and actions, with both sides talking peace while intent on waging war.<\/p>\n

President Ghani\u2019s offer of peace talks in February provides a rare opportunity and a practical platform around which to coordinate international support for an Afghan-lead peace programme. The subsequent temporary ceasefire affords a more concrete opening for both sides to demonstrate their willingness\u00a0and<\/em>\u00a0ability to deliver tangible progress. International support could add credibility, accountability and resources to President Ghani\u2019s proposals.<\/p>\n

But measures to reduce violence must be tied to wider efforts to build peace. Evidence from the\u00a0Political Settlements Research Programme<\/a>, to which the\u00a0Accord\u00a0<\/em>Afghanistan study belongs, shows that the success of peace agreements to resolve immediate violence has not been matched by longer-term commitments to broader reform, and that peace agreements have more often led to uncertain and often impermanent peace and political stalemate.<\/p>\n

Now is the time to take action. International support could add credibility, accountability and resources to President Ghani\u2019s proposals and help them to withstand resistance and shocks. International actors in discussion with the President could develop criteria that a more permanent ceasefire or de-escalation of violence would need to meet before it is considered\u00a0credible.<\/p>\n

What about NATO?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Although the Taliban have announced that they would not be suspending offensive operations against foreign troops as part of their ceasefire, the US and NATO have agreed to support the government\u2019s initiative. Building on this, a joint commitment by NATO and the Afghan government to reciprocate plausible future Taliban de-escalation measures could help convince the Taliban of the reliability and breadth of their commitment to reducing violence.<\/p>\n

It could also help joint planning for future measures such as conditional prisoner release, temporary de-listing of sanctioned Taliban and safe-conduct or security guarantees.<\/p>\n

Supporting local peace zones<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Reducing violence in Afghanistan is difficult. Security continues to deteriorate year-on-year. De-escalation is most likely to be achieved through parallel bottom-up and top-down measures. The end of the June ceasefire saw a return to violence. Local peacemaking initiatives have seen some success in Afghanistan, but a challenge has often been a resistance from central Taliban leadership.<\/p>\n

In statements in the\u00a0Accord<\/em>\u00a0publication, leaders from five different Taliban factions express an interest in achieving non-violent political status. At this stage, the establishment of locally agreed \u2018peace zones\u2019 could be supported while the terms of more permanent ceasefires could be renegotiated and the zone potentially expanded, supporting de-escalation from the ground up.<\/p>\n

Incentives to join could include providing protection for participating groups and leaders. Parallel progress towards reducing violence at a national level could help protect local initiatives from being \u2018spoiled\u2019 by the central leadership. Parallel progress towards reducing violence at a national level could help protect local initiatives from being \u2018spoiled\u2019 by the central leadership.<\/p>\n

Despite the very real challenges and uncertainty over the long-term implications of the\u00a0 temporary ceasefire, it still gives us grounds for optimism. The tangible decrease in violence that resulted can help to build momentum towards sustainable peace in Afghanistan.<\/p>\n

But the country still has a long way to go, and a step-by-step process towards a settlement offers a way to move beyond the peace rhetoric, building stability, confidence and legitimacy over time.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n

Find out more by visiting www.c-r.org\/afghanistan.<\/a><\/p>\n

Image credit: NurPhoto\/ Press Association<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Why is a ceasefire important? Accord\u2019s\u00a0latest publication on peace in Afghanistan, produced by Conciliation Resources,\u00a0highlights the need for a radical new approach to peace in the country \u2013 one thatRead More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":166,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_FSMCFIC_featured_image_caption":"Afghan security force inspects the site of a suicide bomb in Jalalabad, Afghanistan, 03 December 2017","_FSMCFIC_featured_image_nocaption":"","_FSMCFIC_featured_image_hide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[233],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18067","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe ceasefire is essential \u2013 but what should happen next for peace in Afghanistan? - PeaceRep<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The ceasefire is essential \u2013 but what should happen next for peace in Afghanistan? - PeaceRep\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Why is a ceasefire important? 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