{"id":20962,"date":"2023-06-28T11:04:16","date_gmt":"2023-06-28T11:04:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peacerep.org\/?p=20962"},"modified":"2023-07-05T12:11:39","modified_gmt":"2023-07-05T12:11:39","slug":"peace-in-political-market-for-mediator","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gentest.cahss.ed.ac.uk\/dev-peacerep\/2023\/06\/28\/peace-in-political-market-for-mediator\/","title":{"rendered":"Making Peace in a Political Market: Four Questions for a Mediator"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Many of the world\u2019s conflicts are in places where institutions have failed and violent transactional politics rules. Often, the battlefield is only the tactical arena\u2014what counts strategically is the material resources on which the belligerents can call. Among those material resources, what matters most are <em>political<\/em> funds\u2014the money that can be used to buy political loyalties and favors, no questions asked.<\/p>\n<p>The paper, <a href=\"\/publication\/contribution-political-marketplace-framework-peace-processes\/\">Situating the Contribution of the Political Market Framework to Peace Processes<\/a>, by Alex de Waal, Ben Spatz and Aditya Sarkar brings the political marketplace framework (PMF) to bear on mediation practices. It develops a toolkit that can serve as a straightforward diagnostic for the mediator to analyze the conflict in question, and what\u2019s needed to resolve it.<\/p>\n<p>Political marketplaces are places where transactional politics trumps institutions, and where the monetary component of those transactions is so deeply embedded that the prices of political loyalties and services follow the laws of supply and demand. They are found in many fragile and conflict-affected countries in Africa and the Greater Middle East. Examples are Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Iraq, Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.<\/p>\n<p>In starting out to apply the toolkit, the would-be mediator should ask four questions.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3>Question one: How is the political marketplace organized?<\/h3>\n<p>Some political markets are deregulated, with low barriers to entry. In such cases there are likely to be multiple conflict actors, constantly shifting, highly responsive to external conditions such as flows of political money. Such markets are likely to see \u2018Hobbesian\u2019 conflicts, in which there is a low intensity, unpredictable conflict of all against all.\u00a0 Some are oligopolistic, and in those cases, collusion among the contending elites can readily switch into outright rivalry. Conflict prevention may mean spotting the issues on which the oligopolists may fall out, and the sparks that will turn their rivalry into armed conflict. A monopolistic political marketplace is likely to be stable\u2014but will be prone to conflict over the leader\u2019s succession, or if the monopolist\u2019s source of political funds is in peril.<\/p>\n<p>A peace agreement may change a deregulated market to an oligopolistic one, or a rivalrous oligopoly to a collusive one. But the issues over which the former rivals decide to collude\u2014especially the allocation of material rewards or the control over organized violence\u2014will likely contain within them the seeds of the next conflict.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3>Question two: Is it a political bull or bear market?<\/h3>\n<p>This is key. A political bull market is one in which political funds are expanding (to be specific, available political money is increasing more than the price of loyalty is increasing), so that material rewards can be distributed more liberally.<\/p>\n<p>Most formulae for peacemaking in fragile countries are premised on dividing up slices of a bigger cake. An agreement is likely to be a \u2018payroll peace\u2019, a \u2018rationbook peace\u2019 or a \u2018rent allocation peace\u2019. This is <em>not<\/em> the same as a peace dividend\u2014which is a general uplift in the wellbeing of the affected people. Rather it focuses on the payout to the belligerents themselves, and especially the leaders.<\/p>\n<p>A political bear market is the reverse. Where political funds are shrinking, an agreement will be a zero-sum exercise. They will have to make peace for its own sake. Given that the leaders of the warring parties are more likely to want to continue practicing their political business skills than converting to true believers in peace, such a peace deal will need to be very carefully crafted to reward both enough. Alternatively, the parties to the agreement can agree on the basis that they will then squeeze out third parties\u2014essentially making a security pact to turn on others.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3>Question three: Is the conflict \u2018Schmittian\u2019, \u2018Hobbesian\u2019 or is it shifting?<\/h3>\n<p>A \u2018Schmittian\u2019 conflict consists of two well-organized sides (usually coalitions), in which it is easy to identify friend and foe, fighting over state power. A \u2018Hobbesian\u2019 conflict has multiple actors, shifting coalitions, fragmentation of formerly cohesive actors, and new actors entering. It may be less intensely violent, but it is likely to be more widely spread and more difficult to control.<\/p>\n<p>Quite often a \u2018Schmittian\u2019 conflict morphs into a \u2018Hobbesian\u2019 one because the conflict parties cannot sustain high-intensity combat and cannot pay enough to keep their clients in line. A conflict mediation that begins in the earlier, \u2018Schmittian\u2019 stage of a conflict may find that it is no longer well-suited when the situation shifts to a \u2018Hobbesian\u2019 conflict. Proactive mediation needs to anticipate this shift.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3>Question four: What forms of violence will continue after the conflict parties sign an agreement?<\/h3>\n<p>The rules of the political marketplace game are sticky. Whatever the rhetoric of a peace agreement, transactional politics will remain. A peace agreement isn\u2019t likely to enable an escape from the logic of monetized, violent transactional politics. It may increase corruption. It may be a tactical alliance against others. Rather than decreasing violence, it may just change its nature. The ongoing violence may be labelled holdout by spoilers, resistance to disarmament, or banditry or terrorism\u2014i.e., violence that doesn\u2019t count politically.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Posing these questions\u2014and others\u2014will help the mediator grappling with conflict dynamics in a political marketplace. It may not make peacemaking easier. But it should help with a more realistic appraisal of what is possible given the tools available.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>About<\/h3>\n<p>This blog is cross-posted from the World Peace Foundation website. <a href=\"https:\/\/sites.tufts.edu\/reinventingpeace\/\">Access the original blog post<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Professor Alex de Waal<\/strong> is Director of the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University, and Research Director for Political Marketplace research with the Conflict and Civicness Research Group at LSE. <a href=\"\/profile\/professor-alex-de-waal\/\">Learn more about Alex<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prof Alex de Waal discusses questions that the would-be mediator should ask before applying the political marketplace framework (PMF) to mediation practices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":166,"featured_media":20963,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_FSMCFIC_featured_image_caption":"","_FSMCFIC_featured_image_nocaption":"","_FSMCFIC_featured_image_hide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[233,1817],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","category-peace-processes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Making Peace in a Political Market: Four Questions for a Mediator - PeaceRep<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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