{"id":22410,"date":"2024-01-24T09:12:40","date_gmt":"2024-01-24T09:12:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peacerep.org\/?p=22410"},"modified":"2024-01-24T10:55:48","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T10:55:48","slug":"ethiopias-pivot-to-populist-peacemaking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gentest.cahss.ed.ac.uk\/dev-peacerep\/2024\/01\/24\/ethiopias-pivot-to-populist-peacemaking\/","title":{"rendered":"Ethiopia\u2019s Pivot To Populist Peacemaking"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ethiopia\u2019s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has committed yet another diplomatic blunder. This time it was with Somalia over a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for partnership and cooperation signed with Somaliland on 1 January 2024. The episode cements Ethiopia\u2019s diplomatic fall from grace and shift from an institutional foreign policy approach to a transactional and personalised one.<\/span><\/p>\n

This pivot in approach is assessed in a paper, \u201cEthiopia\u2019s Pivot from Institutionalised Regional Diplomacy to Populist Peacemaking<\/a>,\u201d published yesterday. The paper takes Prime Minister Abiy\u2019s 2019 mediation initiative in Sudan and puts it in the \u2018populist peacemaking\u2019 analytical framework.<\/a>\u00a0It demonstrates that the initiative (i) rejected diplomatic expertise, established rules, and practices of mediation, (ii) put the prime minister himself in the spotlight, and (iii) was presented as way to address the people\u2019s needs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the short-lived positive outcome in enhancing Abiy\u2019s image, in the longer term the initiative catalysed the deterioration of relations between Ethiopia and Sudan. It sparked a border dispute between the two countries and catapulted the shift in Sudan\u2019s balanced position on the negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) away from Ethiopia and towards Egypt. Ethiopia\u2019s peacekeeping forces under the United Nations Interim Force for Abyei (UNISFA) were forced to withdraw upon Sudan\u2019s request.<\/a>\u00a0Ethiopia\u2019s chapter of peace and security dominance in the region came to a close.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abiy resorted to a tactical, transactional, and personalised approach to diplomacy that focused on his office and person. His approach aims at power consolidation, political survival, and maintaining the image of a \u2018peace laureate\u2019. It abandoned the relatively institutional and collaborative approach followed by successive Ethiopian regimes that had Ethiopia\u2019s century-old diplomatic institution at its heart, and which strategically and effectively utilised regional organisations to advance Ethiopia\u2019s national interest.<\/span><\/p>\n

Populist Peacemaking and the MoU with Somaliland<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Under the yet-to-be-disclosed deal, Ethiopia will acquire 20 kilometres of the coastline of Somaliland as a naval base providing in return shares from Ethiopian Airlines and recognising Somaliland as an independent state.<\/span><\/p>\n

It was a surprise move that enraged Somalia, which turned up the diplomatic heat. Mogadishu threatened to go to the International Court of Justice, accusing Ethiopia of violating international law as well as the spirit of good neighbourliness. President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud visited Asmara and agreed to address \u2018provocative agendas\u2019 with President Isaias.<\/a>\u00a0In Cairo, he secured Egypt\u2019s affirmation of support for Somalia\u2019s Security and stability.<\/a>\u00a0The CIA head also visited Mogadishu.<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

The international community stood in support of Somalia. The African Union Peace and Security Council<\/a> expressed its concern and called for dialogue. The Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) reaffirmed its support to Somalia at its 42nd Extraordinary Assembly<\/a> where Ethiopia was a conspicuous absentee. The UN, EU, the League of Arab States, Djibouti, Turkey, and the US issued statements calling for de-escalation and respect for Somalia\u2019s territorial integrity and sovereignty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even the United Arab Emirates\u2014Abiy\u2019s number one backer\u2014made a statement in support of Somalia\u2019s territorial integrity<\/a> at the Arab League.<\/span><\/p>\n

The episode united various factions in Somalia, until that time at each other\u2019s throats. Public anger, threats, and accusations against Ethiopia have flared. Somali government officials and Al Shabab issued similar warnings. Signs of Somali irredentism have been resuscitated. Calls for the relocation of the AU Headquarters<\/a> from Ethiopia resurfaced. Ethiopian Airlines was refused entry into Somalia\u2019s airspace and a flight was forced to return.<\/a>\u00a0The fate of Ethiopian peacekeeping troops in Somalia remains uncertain. Meanwhile, the risk of a potential military escalation with Eritrea over access to the Red Sea<\/a> still looms.<\/span><\/p>\n

The MoU with Somaliland is a continuation of Abiy\u2019s \u2018populist peacemaking\u2019 approach to diplomacy. It sidelined institutions, experts, and norms. While being presented as fulfilling the general will of Ethiopians, it was only successful in putting the prime minister in the limelight.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abiy has institutions, experts, and precedents at his disposal that would have helped in preventing a diplomatic blunder. However, institutions and experts are too slow for political expediency and do not suit his tactical and personalised approach to foreign policy.<\/span><\/p>\n

It seems the MoU with Somaliland was entered into without the significant involvement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its seasoned experts. The staff of the Ministry were briefed<\/a> about the MoU two days after its signing. Currently, the Ministry is busy with damage control and desperately attempting to put out the diplomatic fire started by Abiy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abiy should have been renegotiating the 2017 deal which enabled Ethiopia to gain a 19% stake in Somaliland\u2019s Berbera Port<\/a> without any fanfare and concession. A discreet adjustment status quo was perfectly workable. But Abiy\u2019s style demands spectacle.<\/span><\/p>\n

Any success of the deal, if at all, lies in diverting attention from Ethiopia\u2019s internal crisis and putting Abiy in the spotlight.<\/span><\/p>\n

The impact of the deal was blown out of proportion. A signing ceremony was staged against standard diplomatic protocol. Abiy used it to underscore delivering on his promise of securing access to the sea. <\/span>On his X handle, he thanked God and stated the day marked the \u201ccorrection of Ethiopia\u2019s fractures.\u201d<\/a>
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Abiy\u2019s advisors attempted to sell the deal as a strategic diplomatic victory. Their messaging stressed how the deal proved warmongers who were predicting war with Eritrea wrong.<\/span><\/p>\n

State media presented Abiy as the architect of the deal. Ethiopian experts, scholars, and analysts highlighted Abiy\u2019s visionary leadership and echoed the advantages of the deal.<\/span><\/p>\n

These scenes reflect Abiy\u2019s desperation for any sort of victory; his desire to leave a manufactured legacy and regain popular legitimacy.<\/span><\/p>\n

The discourse surrounding the deal focused on addressing the general will of all Ethiopians. Ethiopia\u2019s Government Communication Office in its communique<\/a> articulated the signing of the MoU as a historical event that \u201ccreated an opportunity to cure the decades-old stress and anxiety of Ethiopians\u201d. It stated that the deal \u201cmade Ethiopians happy\u201d and called on friends of Ethiopia and members of the international community to be pleased as well.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the final analysis, the implementation of the deal remains doubtful. Some scholars argue<\/a> that the lack of formal ratification and the unprecedented regional and international backlash would mean the MoU remains no more than a gentleman\u2019s agreement. The deal united Ethiopia\u2019s adversaries and left its national security in a precarious position.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n

About the author:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Eliab Tsegaye Taye is a Master in Global Affairs (MGA) candidate at Fletcher School, Tufts University. Eliab has served as an Ethiopian Foreign Service Officer with the rank of Counsellor at the Ethiopian Embassy in Khartoum, Sudan, and Second Secretary at the Permanent Mission of Ethiopia to the United Nations, New York, USA. Eliab is also a part-time researcher at the World Peace Foundation with a particular research focus on conflict dynamics, peacemaking, and security in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea regions.<\/p>\n

Explore all PeaceRep Ethiopia research<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Eliab Taye reflects on Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s latest diplomatic blunder and the consequences of his personalised approach to foreign policy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":166,"featured_media":22412,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_FSMCFIC_featured_image_caption":"","_FSMCFIC_featured_image_nocaption":"","_FSMCFIC_featured_image_hide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[233,1823],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","category-ethiopia-ogaden"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEthiopia\u2019s Pivot To Populist Peacemaking - PeaceRep<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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