{"id":25328,"date":"2025-04-22T11:14:56","date_gmt":"2025-04-22T11:14:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peacerep.org\/?p=25328"},"modified":"2025-04-22T11:17:46","modified_gmt":"2025-04-22T11:17:46","slug":"ukraines-economic-strength","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gentest.cahss.ed.ac.uk\/dev-peacerep\/2025\/04\/22\/ukraines-economic-strength\/","title":{"rendered":"New PeaceRep\u2013LSE IDEAS Report: Ukraine\u2019s Economic Strength Challenges Russia\u2019s Oil-Dependent War Effort"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A major new report from PeaceRep and LSE IDEAS, the London School of Economics\u2019 foreign policy think tank, assesses the relative economic strengths and vulnerabilities of both Russia and Ukraine in the ongoing war.<\/p>\n<p>Authored by Dr Luke Cooper, a member of LSE IDEAS\u2019 Conflict and Civicness Research Group, the report was produced for the Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform (PeaceRep). It argues that focusing on the economic \u201chome front\u201d reveals the potential brittleness and fragility of the Russian war economy.<\/p>\n<p>Ukraine\u2019s economic strengths, supported by Western financial aid\u2014secured until 2027\u2014and unprecedented tax revenue mobilisation, are often understated. The report suggests that, as things stand, Ukraine holds a surprisingly strong negotiating position.<\/p>\n<p>The 60-page report develops this argument in detail, showing that:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Russia\u2019s war effort is heavily reliant on oil and gas revenues<\/strong> and is experiencing serious fiscal pressure, including a looming credit crunch and the risk of a systemic banking crisis.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Both countries have adopted \u201cmilitary Keynesian\u201d strategies<\/strong>\u2014using war spending to stimulate their economies\u2014with differing outcomes: Ukraine\u2019s democratic institutions and EU aspirations provide checks on militarised rent-seeking, while Russia\u2019s autocratic centralisation entrenches elite interests and sustains the war.<\/li>\n<li><strong>As US-Russia talks gain momentum<\/strong>, the report cautions that Ukraine could be side-lined. It calls for peace negotiations to be inclusive and grounded in rights-based principles, including independent human rights monitoring in occupied territories.<\/li>\n<li><strong>While neither side is positioned for \u201ctotal victory\u201d<\/strong>, Russia\u2019s internal vulnerabilities could shift its negotiating calculus over the coming year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDespite fighting a vastly more powerful adversary, Ukraine\u2019s wartime economy has proven surprisingly resilient. Sustained by the inflow of external aid and the mobilisation of the Ukrainian people, Ukraine\u2019s wartime economy has helped level the playing field. Russia, by contrast, is betting its war effort on volatile oil rents and a fragile financial system that is coming under considerable strain. Even in the face of the Trump administration\u2019s apparent pivot towards the Russian side, Ukraine and its European allies hold more \u2018cards\u2019 than many, including President Trump, seem to believe,\u201d said Dr Luke Cooper, Associate Professorial Research Fellow in International Relations and Director of PeaceRep\u2019s Ukraine programme.<\/p>\n<p>Read the full report here: <a href=\"https:\/\/peacerep.org\/publication\/russo-ukrainian-war\/\">https:\/\/peacerep.org\/publication\/russo-ukrainian-war\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/peacerep.org\/about\/countries\/ukraine\/\">Explore all PeaceRep Ukraine research<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A new report from PeaceRep and LSE IDEAS highlights the contrasting economic foundations of Russia and Ukraine in the ongoing war, revealing significant vulnerabilities in Russia\u2019s war economy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":166,"featured_media":25329,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_FSMCFIC_featured_image_caption":"","_FSMCFIC_featured_image_nocaption":"","_FSMCFIC_featured_image_hide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1784,231,1837],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25328","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-news","category-ukraine"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>New PeaceRep\u2013LSE IDEAS Report: Ukraine\u2019s Economic Strength Challenges Russia\u2019s Oil-Dependent War Effort - PeaceRep<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A new report from PeaceRep and LSE IDEAS highlights the contrasting economic foundations of Russia and Ukraine in the ongoing war, revealing 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